Vicki Arroyo: let's prepare for our new climate

Author Paul Gilding: The Great Disruption

The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crisis Will Bring On the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World by Paul Gilding

Chapter 1: An Economic and Social Hurricane

The earth is full.

Our human society and economy has grown so large that we have now passed the limits of our planet’s capacity to support us. There can be no further growth following the current model without tipping the system we rely upon for our day-to-day lives – for our present and future prosperity – over the cliff. This in itself presents a major problem. It becomes a much larger and more urgent challenge when we consider that billions of people are living desperate lives in appalling poverty and need their personal “economy” to rapidly grow to alleviate their suffering.

What this means is things are going to change. Not because we will choose change out of philosophical or political preference, but because if we don’t transform our society and economy, we face social and economic collapse and the descent into chaos. This science on this is now clear and accepted by any rational observer. While an initial look at the public debate may suggest controversy, any serious examination of the peer reviewed conclusions of leading science bodies shows the core direction we are heading in is now very clear. Things do not look good.

These challenges and the facts behind them are well known by experts and leaders around the world and have been for decades. But despite this understanding that we have passed the limits, it has been continually filed away to the back of our mind and the back of our drawers, with the label “Interesting – for consideration later” prominently attached. Well later has arrived.

This is because the passing of the limits is not philosophical but physical and rooted in the rules of physics, chemistry and biology. These are not preferences, these are strict laws set in science and not changeable. So now that we have broken the rules there are consequences – serious, significant and far reaching consequences.

If you cut down more trees than you grow, you run out of trees. If you put additional nitrogen into a water system you change the type and quantity of life that water can support. If you thicken the earth’s CO2 blanket, the earth gets warmer. If you do all these and many more things at once, you change the way the whole system of planet earth behaves, with social, economic and life support impacts. This is not philosophy, nor speculation, this is high school science. We’ve now passed the limits, so we need to get ready for what’s coming.

In all this, there is a surprising case for optimism. As a species, we are good in a crisis and passing the limits will certainly be the biggest crisis our species has ever faced. Our backs will be up against the wall, and in that situation we have proven ourselves to be quite extraordinary. As the full scale of the imminent crisis hits us, our response will be proportionally dramatic. This is why I don’t despair in the face of the science – it is precisely the severity of the problem that will allow us to realise our next great evolutionary potential, and that will drive a response that is overwhelming in scale and speed and will go right to the core of our societies.

This is the story we will tell here. It is a story that starts in the past, passes through the present and then extends into the future. The past is the story of warnings issued, and decisions made. The present, the story of today, is the factual result of our failure to heed those warnings. But rather than a platform for issuing recriminations, our present situation is the foundation for our future story, a story of great challenges and comparably great opportunity.

By coincidence this story spans my lifetime, having been born in 1959. However, this story is not about me but about us. It is about our world, what has been happening in it, the state it is currently in and what is going to happen next. It is not however a passive commentary about the world we live in. It is more a call to arms, a statement that we all now need to engage – to decide what kind of world we want to live in and what kind of contribution we can each make to define that. It is about a future we must choose.

(Excerpted by permission of Bloomsbury Publishing.)

A Darker Shade of Green: REDD Alert and the Future of Forests

...another sobering reminder of '[y]our' insane industrial civilization.

Dutch Cycling Embassy Video

Cycling For Everyone from Dutch Cycling Embassy on Vimeo.

Dr Jumsai lectures during World Environment Day 2010, Singapore

Dr Jumsai is a former NASA scientist, MP in Thailand and business man. Currently he is the director of Sathya Sai School in Thailand, educator and presenter with world-wide engagement.

Environmental fundamentalism - MK Venu

[...]Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has said those who oppose the new climate change Bill in the United States are committing "treason against the planet". Other less reputed academics have said irresponsible environment policies must be treated as "crime against humanity". Some are saying there is too much democracy which is preventing a firm decision on emission cuts to be undertaken by all countries. 

Cutting per capita carbon emissions by 80-90% will not happen through such mechanisms as carbon trading and technology transfers. In short, climate change cannot be seen as another instrument for enhancing global trade in new, low carbon technologies, desirable as they may be, per se.

For a real solution, we may have to go back to Gandhi's position that the world has enough to satisfy everybody's need, but not enough for anyone's greed. At a moral level, which is also ecologically compatible, each individual will have to examine his/her carbon footprint and each country its development model for any meaningful consensus to evolve on the climate change debate. This is too critical to be left merely to global diplomacy![...]

Medan: Suhu Naik 0,5 Derajat Celsius

Medan, Kompas - Balai Besar Wilayah I Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan

Geofisika Medan mencatat dalam sepuluh tahun suhu rata-rata di Kota Medan

naik 0.5 derajat celsius. Kondisi ini diduga diakibatkan berkurangnya ruang

hijau di Medan.

Berdasarkan laporan Stasiun Klimatologi Sampali, Medan, BMKG,

ditemukan data, selama 10 tahun terakhir terjadi kenaikan suhu rata-rata 0,5

derajat celsius di Kota Medan. Tahun 1974 rata-rata suhu udara di bawah 27 derajat celsius,
sementara tahun 2004 pantauan BMKG menunjukkan suhu udara rata-rata sudah mendekati
28derajat celsius.

Kepala Bidang Data dan Informasi BMKG Medan Ridwar Kamil, Rabu (6/5) di

Medan, mengatakan, tata ruang kota yang dipenuhi gedung dan tak memberi

tempat untuk ruang publik hijau ikut mendorong suhu udara semakin panas di

perkotaan.

Link :

http://cetak.kompas.com/read/xml/2009/05/07/03270291/suhu.naik.05.derajat.celsius

EE note on Live Earth Concert 2007

Yesterday, as Al Gore's 'Live Earth' 2007 concert came to a close--one word deserved more mention than others: sensitivity. The concert itself is an effort of mass-transitional medium to raise what Madonna calls  'an avalanche of awareness'. However, as in natural occurring avalanche, it needs a trigger--the accumulating 'snow' of awareness--that is the accumulation of our [rich-industrialised North and its satellites] unfriendly habits towards our home planet.

The question is whether this accumulation has peak? Many environmentalists, green economists or California's governor Arnold Schwarzenegger believe it has or at least nearing to its peak. Much debate on this 'peak oil' situation and depending on your stance--your opinion is formed. If you are supporter of the oil-industries my assumption is, you will say: 'True, many of the known oil wells in the world are falling in its production. But there are many more unknown oil fields waiting to be discovered'--you may even add:'furthermore, our advanced technology may save us from energy depletion'.

Conversely, hardcore greenies and realist-economists will voiced the opposite, they will probably say: eventhough there are many more unknown oil fields to discovered they are not earth-friendly even with the best of advance technologies. Coupled with the current practice of 'un-economic' system (industrial scale and short term profit orientation) we subscribed, it would be hard to see any substantial reduction in our polluting habits. As the saying goes: 'it will take few months for a child of 5 to change his/her habits, it may take a few years for teen-ager to achieve the same result and for those who claimed to be adults...well it may take generations in other word: FOREVER.

Given the long time span required to change their outlook for those 'wise-adults'--in my humble opinion it is best to focus on the young in age and the 'young at heart' as they are more open, malleable and not hardened by the glitters and 'blings' of the world. And in the case of the latter, the 'young at heart' are probably in their second 'rebellious' stage of life so just like 'teenagers' they are in the path of a new discovery. Anyway, the point is this: we don't want to waste our precious time and energy to cater to those who refuse to change, so why bother.

Before we take the plunge however, it is recommended to have some coherent structures to adhere or a system. These includes and not limited to learning or re-learning the basic of biology, the socio-ecological principles(including studying the 'mysterious' subject of economics but as a sub-system of ecology), system designs(such as 'permaculture' and older traditions conducive and useful to our change of outlook). All these knowledge, body of science and traditions may be embodied in somekind of 'integrative-studies' or '[w]holistic' science framework, fortunately some schools and universities have started the application of this approach to its curricullum, however most of these institutions are not mainstream yet.

Education institutions, universities, schools and informal learning places have  the great responsibilities to instill and invoke in students sensitivity towards Nature and her environment. Sensitivity that will lead to love of Nature something that eminent biologist E.O. Wilson called: 'biophilia' (bio=life and philia is Greek for love) hence the 'love of life'. It is basically here that the future of our planet is decided. As students later discovered with new 'eyes' the beauty and complexity of our home planet, they will make an 'automatic-connection' to their sensitive-self and it will guide them to a higher level of awareness/consciousness each time they have to make a decision. Under these conditions, the outcome of decision making process  will lean towards 'long-term' rather than 'short-term' as inter-generational and sustainability issues get better understood and appreciated.

I think education for the environment is not only critically important but also invaluable as it holds the key to real change of our behaviour and attitudes towards our home planet. Unless of course, one prefer the shocking realization of suddenly finding 'all is at sea' as climate change advances and we are all forced to meet the fate of the polar bears. This reminded me of Phil Collins song 'Home by the Sea' -- except this time it's home under the sea...ironically our ancestor 'genesis' is indeed from the seas of many million of years ago.